Podcasting Predictions for 2025

Video leads to layoffs, Bill Simmons goes to SXM, and Apple Nukes The App

It’s time for Predictions for 2025. Some are safe predictions. Some are more aggressive. Let me know what you think in the comments.

PEOPLE ARE GOING TO GET LAID OFF THIS SUMMER BECAUSE COMPANIES WENT ALL IN ON VIDEO (Safe Prediction)

How is your Facebook Live Initiative coming along?

You need to listen to that Media Roundtable episode above, and you need to pay attention to James Cridland, who says (according to Apple Podcasts Auto Transcription and my memory):

“Brian Barletta has written a very good article around what it means for podcasters. And he is saying, he points out firstly, if you upload a video podcast to Spotify, then that essentially replaces the audio totally. And it replaces the RSS feed.

It replaces your ability to sell programmatic advertising. It replaces all of the benefits that you get from open RSS. All of that goes away because you've uploaded a video podcast onto Spotify and it uses the audio from that track as the audio, as somebody is playing it back.

So that's one easy way that Spotify has essentially got rid of all of the programmatic advertising from that particular show. Secondly, we don't quite know, he says, what the numbers are going to be. As I mentioned before, there are qualifications and those qualifications are actually significantly higher than YouTube's, which is just worthwhile knowing.

So if you're not making money from YouTube yet, you certainly won't be making money out of Spotify. “

Right now there are bosses all across America reading articles saying things about video, the Gen-Z’s, and discovery. The boss is thinking, “Why aren’t WE making video?” The bosses will start their Video Initiative and Q1 will be all about Video Podcasts being the cool new toy. You’ll hear about one 4 days a week in Podnews.

Then, at some point - and the point I am (very) boldly predicting is July 4th - the bosses are going to notice the empty calories of Video Podcasting. Oh, you might get discovered…but is the discovery converting to dollars? My personal podcast Daily Comedy News gets more views on YouTube than it does Audio Downloads. I make ZERO from the YouTube part (to be fair, a low effort Headliner video with no “real” video), and I make a living from the traditional audio podscast. I’m not convinced that the teenagers “discovering” me because I use Shane Gillis’ name in an episode title are converting to audio listeners, which is what pays the mortgage.

When the layoffs come next summer and we do another round of IS PODCASTING DEAD articles, please remember I told you so. If you don’t remember, I know myself, I will be sure to write I TOLD YOU SO. I am telling you so. Watch out for big budgets and empty calories.

BILL SIMMONS LANDS AT SIRIUSXM (Safe Prediction)

Those paying attention to the industry have noticed Bill doesn’t seem at all interested in Spotify’s video push. It caught my eye that Bill didn’t make Spotify’s Top 50 Podcasts. I mentioned several times this year how I found the other Ringer shows to be stunningly empty when it came to spots (although it is possible that in your geolocation you got TONS of spots, and thus those shows make TONS of money, but I sure didn’t hear many.)

Knowing a little about how SiriusXM bosses think, I have a dollar wagered that Simmons lands there. It’s the kind of Big Name Splash they love to do. Chris Russo isn’t getting any younger, nor is Howard. A 55 year old dude who psychographically aligns with Howard, Mad Dog, Springsteen and U2 Fans? Done.

Offer Bill “his own channel” (yay in 2025?) and of course podcast monetization…maybe even some NBA something something.

How much of The Ringer makes it? Unless you’re Ryan Rusillo (who I could see anchoring Bill Simmons Radio M-F), if you are one of the Other Shows I’d start trying to see if I could secure the RSS feeds from Bill or Spotify and I’d definitely punch of the resume.

APPLE GIVES UP ON THE WORD PODCAST AND REVAMPS THE APP (Crazy Prediction)

Remember iTunes? You may know it as Apple Music.

With all the talk, fool-hardy or not, about video - will Apple sit the entire year out letting Spotify (correctly or not) seem progressive and modernizing the medium….while Apple just has old-sounding Apple Podcasts? Say it out loud, doesn’t “Apple Podcasts” sound old to your 2025 ears? It does.

Apple Shows might work, with a mix of audio and video.

Picture this (this is the “TV app” where I watch movies….hmmmm) except where it says movies it says AUDIO and where it says TV it says VIDEO.

Let me go one further, what if Apple works with some of the podcasting hosting companies, as they tend to do, so you could upload video on the host end, and the host handled DAI advertising the way we’ve been doing for around a decade now. Then you could upload video AND make money (leaving it up to you if you can afford the 25 people, the fancy living room set, and if you can book Trump.)

What if Apple and the Hosts worked together so that even “lazy video” was better than Headliner? Maybe something involving cover art and the already existing transcripts….but like a prettier version. Maybe even some of the Apple Intelligence AI stuff gets involved. That might be something.

But then again, the Gen-Zs already have Youtube. so would they even use it? And one of the Pods about Pods - maybe it was Rob and Todd, or maybe it was Cridland’s Blog - pointed out that Apple doesn’t call attention to video because they want all their products to be WhizBang, and your 480p video podcast in your basement isn’t worth saying LOOK AT ME WORLD.

VALUE FOR VALUE TRIES HARD BUT ANOTHER YEAR GOES BY…UNLESS…. (Crazy Prediction)

We need Apple Podcasts (Apple Shows) to get on board and let us one click Apple Pay, fund a wallet, so we can pay creators. Maybe it’s not streaming bitcoin because banks and feds and rules and all that stuff I don’t understand. Maybe it’s more of a Supporter Function. Want to Support This Show Every Time You Listen - click this toggle and they will get One US DOLLAR (or whatever) every time you download an episode. Something like that. Patreon meets Apple Play meets EASY.

As a creator, I will happily let Apple take their 30% pound of flesh in exchange for this convenience. It would kind of sort of be like selling a song for 99 cents, but if its ere positioned as Supporting The Creator rather than Buying An Episode, I think it could work.

THE INDUSTRY NOTICES YOUTUBE/GOOGLE IS BORED WITH PODCASTING (Safe Prediction)

How’s Google Play Music treating you? How about Google Podcasts? Remember when Youtube Music was super-interested in you adding your podcast? What have they done for podcasts since? There’s really no reason to remove a podcast tab from Youtube or Youtube Music, but I think the industry will increasingly notice that they are bored with it.

EARLY PREDICTION FOR 2026: SPOTIFY GETS BORED WITH VIDEO PODCASTING BECAUSE NOBODY USED IT (Safe Prediction)

Don’t forget to hire a 25 man person team to make videos for non-monetized discovery. It’s a smart play, really, you won’t regret it.

Tomorrow…it’s What I’m Listening To Wednesday and podcast listening recommendations.

Let me know what you thought of all this, and remember, no matter how many times I proofread, there’s still a typo.

As I put the finishing touches on this last night, I saw Chris Peterson made his podcast predictions. I deliberately didn’t read it (yet) because I didn’t want it to influence mine. For example, I was emailing with Podcasting Person You’ve Heard Of around that same time and that person changed my mind about something I had written earlier in the day. I will read what Chris has to say as soon as mine goes live, which in your world is now.

Oh, I updated my Portfolio Website. Some of the deep pages have links that shouldn’t be there (‘merch’ for example) but I will clean those up shortly.